The local real estate market looks like it might finally be showing signs of softening, with inventory up and sales down. More sellers have opted to put their homes on the market. Inventory was up 47 percent in King County and price increases were in the single digits. Despite the increase in inventory and slowdown in sales, it’s still a solid seller’s market. Over half the properties purchased in June sold for more than list price.
A booming economy offered little price relief for buyers looking on the Eastside. In a recent study of economic strength by state, Washington ranked number one in the country. An additional report targeting cities ranks the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma market as the nation’s fourth strongest economy. The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside rose 10 percent over a year ago to $977,759 setting another record. There is some good news for buyers. Inventory rose to its highest level in three years, with the number of homes for sale increasing 46 percent from the same time last year.
The number of homes on the market in King County soared 47 percent from a year ago, the biggest increase since the housing bubble burst. Despite the increase, there is just over one month of available inventory, far short of the four to six months that is considered a balanced market. The median price of a single-family home increased 9 percent over last June to $715,000. That’s down 2 percent from the $726,275 median in May. Home prices haven’t dropped from May to June in King County since the last recession.
Seattle trails only Bay Area cities when it comes to greatest profits for home sellers. That may help explain the surge in inventory in June. For example, the number of homes for sale in the popular Ballard/Green Lake area doubled from a year ago. Even though buyers are finally getting more choices, demand still exceeds supply. Homes sell faster in Seattle than in any other U.S. real estate market. That demand propelled the median price of a single-family home to $812,500; up 8 percent over last June and down from the record $830,000 set in May.
The largest jump in home prices in the region came in Snohomish County. While higher-priced markets in King County are seeing increases slowing slightly, the median price of a single-family home here jumped 14 percent to $511,500, a new high for the county. Buyers willing to “keep driving until they can afford it” are finding Snohomish County an appealing destination.
This post originally appeared on the WindermereEastside.com Blog.
What lies ahead for the local housing market in 2018? We sat down with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner to get his thoughts. Here are some highlights:
Home prices will continue to increase, but at a slower pace
The strong local economy, high demand and very low inventory will continue to boost home values in 2018, according to Gardner. However, he believes that the double-digit growth of 2017 will moderate, and predicts home prices in King County will rise by 8.5% in the new year.
Mortgage interest rates will rise slightly.
Gardner admits that interest rates continue to baffle forecasters. The rise that many economists have predicted the past few years has yet to materialize. His forecast for 2018 sees interest rates increasing modestly to an average of 4.4% for a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
More Millennials will enter the housing market.
Despite the relatively high cost of homes in our region, Gardner expects more Millennials to buy homes in 2018. They are getting older and more established in their careers, enabling them to save more money for a down payment. Many are also having children and are looking for a place to raise their family.
The tax reform bill will have a limited effect on our housing market.
The recent changes to the income tax structure will have an impact on homeowners, but Gardner does not believe that impact will be significant here.
The mortgage interest rate deduction will be capped at $750,000 – down from $1,000,000. But according to Gardner, just 4% of the mortgages in King County exceeded $750,000 in 2017. Most buyers of more expensive homes have been making larger down payments, or buying homes for cash.
Since the $1,000,000 mortgage deduction cap is grandfathered in for those who have already purchased a home, some homeowners may opt to stay put rather than move. That could result in fewer homes being placed on the market.
- The tax bill eliminates the deduction for interest on home equity loans. This is bound to slow down the trend of homeowners choosing to remodel their home rather than trying to find a new home our inventory-deprived market.
The increase in home prices may moderate, but inventory will still be very tight. 2018 is on track to be a strong seller’s market.