The Gardner Report – Third Quarter 2018

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Agent. 

Economic Overview

Washington State continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the nation and there is little to suggest that there will be any marked slowdown in the foreseeable future. Over the past year, the state has added 105,900 new jobs, representing an annual growth rate of 3.2%. This remains well above the national rate of 1.65%. Private sector employment gains continue to be robust, increasing at an annual rate of 3.7%. The strongest growth sectors were Construction (+7.4%), Information (+6.2%), and Professional & Business Services (+6.1%). The state’s unemployment rate was 4.5%, down from 4.8% a year ago.

All year I’ve been predicting that Washington State’s annual job growth would outperform the nation as a whole, and we now know with certainty that this is going to be the case. Furthermore, I am now able to predict that statewide job growth in 2019 will be equally strong, with an expected increase of 2.6%.

Home Sales Activity

  • There were 22,310 home sales during the third quarter of 2018. This is a significant drop of 12.7% compared to the third quarter of 2017.

  • The number of homes for sale last quarter was up 14.5% compared to the third quarter of 2017, continuing a trend that started earlier in the year. However, the increase in listings was only in Seattle’s tri-county area (King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties) while listing activity was down across the balance of the region.

  • Only two counties had a year-over-year increase in home sales, while the rest of Western Washington saw sales decrease.

  • The region has reached an inflection point. With the increase in the number of homes for sale, buyers now have more choices and time to make​ a decision about what home to buy.

Home Prices

  • As inventory levels start to rise, some of the heat has been taken off the market, which caused home prices in the Western Washington region to go up by a relatively modest 6.2% over last year to $503,039. Notably, prices are down by 4.4% when compared to the second quarter of this year.

  • Home prices, although higher than a year ago, continue to slow due to the significant increase in the number of homes for sale. This, in my opinion, is a very good thing.​​

  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Lewis County, where home prices were up 15.3%. Six other counties experienced double-digit price increases.

  • Slowing price growth was inevitable; we simply could not sustain the increases we’ve experienced in recent years. Lower rates of appreciation will continue until wage growth catches up.

Days on Market

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by four days compared to the same quarter of 2017.

  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 39 days to sell a home in the third quarter of this year. This is down from 43 days in the third quarter of 2017 and down 2 days when compared to the second quarter of 2018.​
  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 19 days to sell. Every county in the region other than Skagit and King — which both saw the time on the market rise by 2 days — saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to the same period a year ago.

  • More choice in the market would normally suggest that the length of time it takes to sell a home should rise, but the data has yet to show that. That said, compared to last quarter, we are seeing some marked increases in days on market in several counties, which will be reflected in future reports.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. I started to move the needle toward buyers last quarter and have moved it even further this quarter. Price growth continues to slow, but more significant is the rise in listings, which I expect to continue as we move toward the quieter winter period.

I believe that psychology will start to play a part in the housing market going forward. It has been more than 15 years since we’ve experienced a “balanced” market, so many home buyers and sellers have a hard time remembering what one looks like. Concerns over price drops are overrated and the length of time it’s taking to sell a home is simply trending back to where it used to be in the early 2000s.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

Posted on October 25, 2018 at 9:11 pm
Sheri Putzke | Category: Real Estate Trends | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Eastside Market Review – First Quarter 2018

The available supply of homes on the Eastside continued to fall short of demand in the first quarter of 2018. With just two weeks of available inventory, competition for homes remained intense. The result was a steady growth in home prices. The median price of a single-family home hit new highs in the first quarter and closed out the period at $926,000. Sales were brisk at every price, including the luxury market. Sales of homes priced at $2 million or more were up 23 percent in the first quarter of 2018 as compared to the previous year. The region has now led the country in home price increases for 17 months in a row. The prediction for the spring market: hot with no signs of cooling.

Read the full report online by clicking the image below.

This post originally appeared on the WindermereEastside.com Blog.

Posted on May 22, 2018 at 5:13 pm
Sheri Putzke | Category: Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Local Market Update – May 2018

Another month, another record. Despite a slight uptick in inventory that showed the highest level of active listings since last August, both King and Snohomish counties saw home prices in April hit all-time highs. There is less than one month of inventory available in both counties, far below the four to six months of supply that is considered “balanced.” As long as the severe shortage of homes remains, improving supply is unlikely to reverse rising prices.

Eastside

>>>Click image to view full report.

With the median price on the Eastside hovering at just under $1 million, you’d expect a softening of the market. Instead, sales were strong at every price point. The median price of $943,000 was a slight dip from the record of $950,000, but up 7 percent from last April. That does show some price moderation. According to Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, mortgage rates are expected to increase modestly in the coming months, which he predicts should further moderate price growth.

King County

>>>Click image to view full report.

After setting a record in March, the median price of a single-family home in King County hit a new high of $725,000 in April. Prices soared 16 percent over a year ago, an increase of $100,000. The rising cost of both rental and home prices is taking its toll. According to a new study, 68 percent of King County residents rate the quality of life here as high but 35 percent said the cost of living is the worst problem in the county.

Seattle

>>>Click image to view full report.

The median cost of a single-family home in Seattle was $819,000, unchanged from March but up 13 percent from a year ago. There doesn’t appear to be any price relief in the near future. The booming job market in Seattle continues to fuel housing demand that far exceeds supply. As a result, home prices are predicted to rise at above-average rates in the coming year.

Snohomish County

>>>Click image to view full report.

In Snohomish County, the median price of a single-family home exceeded half a million dollars, setting a new record for the region. The typical home cost of $505,975 in April was up 15 percent over the same time last year. Despite record-setting prices, the area continues to draw buyers seeking to find more affordable housing options. Of the 100,000+ people who leave King County each year, the majority move to Snohomish County.

This post originally appeared on the WindermereEastside.com Blog.

Posted on May 11, 2018 at 12:22 am
Sheri Putzke | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , , , , ,

How Tax Reform Affects Homeowners…What You Need to Know!

House on a US tax form schedule A
New tax legislation was signed into law at the end of 2017, and it included some significant changes for homeowners. These changes took effect in 2018 and do not influence your 2017 taxes.  Here’s a brief overview of this year’s tax changes and how they may affect you.  
 
The amount of mortgage interest you can deduct has decreased.
 
Under the old law taxpayers could deduct the interest they paid on a mortgage of up to $1 million. The new law reduces the mortgage interest deduction from $1 million to $750,000.
These changes do not affect mortgages taken out before December 15, 2017.
 
The home equity loan deduction has been changed.
 
The IRS states that despite newly-enacted restrictions on home mortgages, taxpayers can often still deduct interest on a home equity loan, home equity line of credit (HELOC) or second mortgage, regardless of how the loan is labeled. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, enacted December 22, suspends the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans and lines of credit unless they are used to buy, build or substantially improve the taxpayer’s home that secures the loan. The deduction would be suspended from 2018 until 2026.
 
The property tax deduction is capped at $10,000.
 
Previously taxpayers could deduct all the state, local and foreign real estate taxes they paid with no cap on the amount. The new law limits the deduction for all state and local taxes – including income, sales, real estate, and personal property taxes – to $10,000.
 
The casualty loss deduction has been repealed.
 
Previously, homeowners could deduct unreimbursed casualty, disaster and theft losses on their property. That deduction has been repealed, with an exception for losses on property located in a federally declared disaster area – an important victory!
 
The capital gains exclusion remains unchanged.
 
Homeowners can continue to exclude up to $500,000 for joint filers or $250,000 for single filers for capital gains when selling their primary residence as long as they have lived in the home for two of the past five years. An earlier proposal would have increased that requirement to five out of the last eight years and phase out the exclusion for high-income households, but it was struck down.
 
   
How does tax reform affect your plans for buying or selling a home?
 
The changes in real estate related taxes may change your strategy. Contact one of our agents to go over your options and answer any questions you may have.

 

This post originally appeared on the WindermereEastside.com Blog.
Posted on March 28, 2018 at 8:19 pm
Sheri Putzke | Category: Local Market News, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,